Clearly, this season was one challenge too much for the Wellington Phoenix. In hindsight, there’s no reason to think a team that lost half of its starting line-up, and then struggled with injuries on top of that, should have any hope whatsoever of reclaiming a semi-finals berth. Except for the reason that this is the Wellington Phoenix and they rebuild their squad every year and usually still make the finals. There was only half a team in common between the last season’s crew and the ones that preceded it too and that led to their best ever campaign. They’ve done it before. Often enough to trick people into thinking they always can.

The difference is that last season they had Alex Paulsen, Finn Surman, and Ben Old ready for spotlight roles. Those three are so good that within twelve months they’ve all become regular All Whites selections and earned big money transfers overseas. That’s exactly what the Phoenix Academy is aiming for. Those player sales are what’s keeping the club afloat... but losing all three at once was a lot to handle from a footballing perspective. The Nix had some imports and older locals depart too but those guys are replaceable. Trying to find three more academy lads of that calibre all at once though? That’s a whole different matter.

That’s not to say that the shelves were empty, more that Paulsen/Surman/Old were better primed for their breakthroughs having each already spent at least two previous seasons in the first-team squad. The lads who’ve taken their places are guys like Alby Kelly-Heald, Isaac Hughes, Nathan Walker, and Matt Sheridan... and they’re all a year or two behind where their predecessors were. Hughes and Sheridan debuted last season while AKH and Walker only debuted this season.

However, the problem has not been that they’re playing young players. It might be argued that they’re relying on a few too many young’uns all at once but the academy lads have mostly been pretty solid. The problem is that they’ve whiffed on putting together a proper team around them. The point was made in the Derby 3 roundup that Auckland FC have squad that contains a good chunk of players in or entering their prime years. Wellington Phoenix, on the other hand, have a collection of rookies and a collection of veterans and nothing in between. 28-year-old Alex Rufer is the only truly In His Prime bloke in that entire group. They do not currently have a single player between the ages of 24-27. Sam Sutton is 23. Tim Payne is 31. The addition of Chico Geraldes at 29yo was a lovely touch but it happened months too late. The other imports are Josh Oluwayemi (23), Hideki Ishige (30), Kazuki Nagasawa (32), Scott Wootton (33), and let’s not forget the departed David Ball (35). This simply isn’t a squad built to compete right here, right now.

It’s not over yet. There’s still time for them to go on a freaky run that nobody sees coming and with Geraldes and Rojas now available they’ll have a more effective attack over these last several weeks than they had at any point up until now. We’ll save the Where Did It Go Wrong yarn for another day when things are more definitive. But regardless of what happens from here, the planning should already be underway for next season. There are lessons to be learned and there are questions that need answering. Starting with the most consequential one...

Is Giancarlo Italiano Still The Bloke To Lead Them?

Chiefy signed a two-year contract when he stepped up to the head coaching role at the Wellington Phoenix. That means that, as things stand, he only has a couple more months to go. It was surprising that they never managed to sort out an extension off the back of 2023-24’s success despite constant chatter about ongoing negotiations. That could be something that Italiano lives to regret given what a contrast his second term has been to his first. Stock prices may have dropped.

Italiano was recently asked upfront whether he expects to still be the coach next season and he made it bluntly clear that he does. But there was also a joker flying a Cheify Out flag at the last home game and there’s no doubt that the fans are getting tetchy. The results are one thing but the style of play has also come under fire for its perceived defensive excesses. Is that a fair assessment? That depends. This team has only scored multiple times in 4/18 games so far and have scored the second-fewest goals in the competition. They also rank second-last in possession and expected goals (xG), and last for big chances created, accurate crosses, touches in the opponent’s box, and attacking corners. The evidence is damning. The results have been nasty and they’re not much fun to watch.

But is that the coach’s fault? Clearly he holds some responsibility but also he’s got a squad that’s much weaker than last season and which has been regularly hampered by injuries. There’s nothing about their style of play that’s drastically different to last season when nobody had a problem with it (even though they weren’t a particularly good attacking then either – it was all built on outstanding defence). Chiefy just doesn’t have the players to make it work. If they suddenly start scoring goals with Geraldes and Rojas hanging around then the focus would surely have to shift towards squad-building deficiencies. If not then yeah maybe the tactics will need to go through the washing machine.

As far as the Nix hierarchy is concerned, there’s another aspect to this and that’s whether they’d be able to find anyone better. The usual course of events at this club is to promote from within which would probably lean towards Adam Griffiths. To be honest, that wouldn’t be a bad hire. But that’s supposing they decide to move past The Chief and taking recent emotions out of the equation, what he achieved against the odds in Year One was a lot more unexpected than the downfall of Year Two (for which it’s not even clear how culpable he should be). Surely he’s earned the opportunity to take the good with the bad and try figure it out in Year Three. Continuity is a hard thing to find at a club with player turnover as high as this. You’ve gotta be very careful not to unnecessarily spoil it any further.

How Are The Contracts Looking?

Thanks for asking, they’re looking a lot like this...

2027-28: Nathan Walker, Matt Sheridan, Isaac Hughes, Tim Payne

2026-27: Lukas Kelly-Heald, Alby Kelly-Heald, Luke Brooke-Smith, Jayden Smith, Gabe Sloane-Rodrigues, Tze-Xuan Loke

2025-26: Alex Rufer, Kosta Barbarouses*, Hideki Ishige (I), Paolo Retre, Kazuki Nagasawa (I), Josh Oluwayemi (I), Luke Supyk, Fin Roa Conchie

2024-25: Scott Wootton (I), Chico Geraldes (I), Sam Sutton, Marco Rojas, Stefan Colakovski, Corban Piper (S), Dublin Boon (S)

I = Imports

S = Scholarship

* = Kosta has an option for next season

We’ll get to the free agents soon enough, but first gotta clarify that Brooke-Smith, J.Smith, Sloane-Rodrigues & Loke will all remain scholars in 2025-26 before going fully professional in their final seasons on these current deals. Walker has one more scholar year then then following two are full pro. So there are ten players already under contract for two or three additional seasons and eight of them are academy players. One of the exceptions is Luke Brooke-Smith who is the youngest guy in the squad (but not technically an academy player). The other is Tim Payne who, at present, is the only dude older than 20 years of age(Hughes turns 21 at the end of the month) with multiple seasons remaining on his current deal. T-Payne will be 34 when his contract ends.

That’s some pretty good office work making sure that the bulk of the graduates are sorted for the long term. They need those fellas under contract because that’s who they’re hoping to be able to sell down the line. Not all of them but you need to coveryour bases since it’s not always easy to predict who’ll hit. Ideally, it’ll only be one major transfer per year like it was with Sarpreet Singh into Libby Cacace into one year off into Ben Waine. Losing three all at once with Paulsen/Surman/Old was a freak instance, hence they should be covered for this year without a major departure. Oskar van Hattum did leave for Ireland but that was a free transfer. Luke Supyk’s been rumoured with Stoke City but he’s not established enough yet to drive a significant fee. There could be something completely out of the blue, the Kelly-Heald twins would be the best candidates, but probably not. Anybody that could leave would be better off putting in another year’s mahi and further raising their reputation first.

As for those hearty comrades with one additional season promised to them, that’s where there could be some issues. Fortunately, Alex Rufer won’t be going anywhere. His glandular fever absence was kinda what derailed the whole journey. They’d won four of nine matches prior with Rufer playing every single minute, only being held scoreless once in those nine. Since then, they’ve won one from nine and been kept scoreless in five of those matches. Rufer’s back now but the damage has been done.

Kosta Barbarouses should also be returning next season, unless he opts not to take his option, maintaining his leadership and continuity up top. Continuity but not really consistency because he scored six goals in nine to begin the season and has one in nine since and it was a penalty (note how this aligns with Rufer’s illness). Additionally, Luke Supyk and Fin Roa Conchie are two academy grads with genuine potential that hasn’t been unlocked in the A-League as of yet. Opportunities have been a tad scarce for each but they’re far too young to be written off. Both debuted in 2023-24. As we’ve learned from past experience, it’s usually the third or fourth season when the really good stuff starts to happen.

Those guys are quality players that the Wellington Phoenix can build a team around. Where it gets slipperier is in having three imports set to return for a second year who were all only picked on the bench last week against Melbourne City. In fact, two of them were unused substitutes not just last week but for the Auckland game too. The fact that neither Josh Oluwayemi or Kazuki Nagasawa got on the park in a derby game is... not a good sign. Oluwayemi was given a needless contract extension after two matches and a couple of months later he’d been dropped. Nagasawa had started most games up until recently but now finds himself behind Matt Sheridan, just as Oluwayemi is stuck behind Alby Kelly-Heald.

The most settled midfield combo has been Rufer, Nagasawa, and Paolo Retre... but while it looked good defensively, that trio always lacked craft and creativity – although three of their four wins did happen within the six-week span when this trio were all available and selected. Retre’s also contracted for next season, by the way. At least Hideki Ishige has managed eight goal contributions (2 goals, 6 assists) - the most in the squad. It doesn’t feel like any of the new imports have settled, albeit imports do tend to be more effective in year two for that reason. The A-League can be an awkward one to get a grasp on. S’pose that’s something to be optimistic about when looking at a list of underwhelming players who’ll all be back again next time.

Which Free Agents Should They Re-Sign?

Herein lies much drama because they probably want all of those free agents to return and would much rather clear space by flipping a few of those two-year guys. Which... could still happen. As long as it’s mutual it’s not too hard to arrange an early release. If it’s not mutual then you get a David Ball situation, where they wasted an import spot for two-thirds of term because Bally didn’t have anywhere else to go. He’s settled in Wellington, got his football school to think of, not to mention his family. But the Nix had no use for him on the pitch and thus an impasse occurred.

This is a pretty good example of how future-planning can go awry because they gave David Ball a two-year extension straight after the 2021-22 season despite still having another year to go on his then-current deal. He was 32 at that point, contracted for his age 33 season, and they added two more to that (something it would appear that they’ve already learned from with Kosta’s 1+1 extension). As it happens, Ball didn’t quite finish that contract. In the two-and-a-half years after his last extension, he made 51 further appearances in which he played 3479 minutes and scored two goals with five assists. The extension they gave him came immediately after he battled through a busted toe in a finals game, confirming his sainted status among the fanbase. Seems the club got a little but sentimental and then suffered for it down the line when Ball’s production dropped off.

With that in mind, Wellington probably don’t want to give Marco Rojas more than one year (maybe a 1+1) after a season in which he suffered two separate extended injuries. Not unless they’re forced to because of a bidding war. They might not even want to retain him at all if they don’t feel they can trust him to stay available. However, given how often Chiefy has spoken of Rojas as being a key figure in how he wanted to design this team, it’d be silly not to give it another chance. It’s not impossible that they might convince Chico Geraldes to come back next season when his Malaysian deal will have expired and he can sign on permanent terms. Supposing they can afford it, of course - it’s been said that Geraldes effectively cost all the salary space they cleared up by losing Ball, Al-Taay, and Van Hattum so that’s a significant financial commitment. They’ve got eight more games with Chico to figure out if that’s something they want to pursue. Let us withhold judgement for the meantime.

Sam Sutton’s gotta be a no-brainer. He’s started every game he’s played this season and is entering that prime age range that the Nix are lacking so desperately. He’s a full international. He’s positionally versatile. And for those very same reasons that the Nix should be in a hurry to re-sign him, he might instead decide that it is time to test his fortunes overseas. Time will tell. Corban Piper has burst upon the A-League scene with his strength, bravery, and tireless effort. They signed him with the intention of developing him into a ball-playing central defender yet he’s ended up playing pretty much everywhere. CP’s been an overwhelming positive in a tough season and has all the attributes the Phoenix should be trying to nurture. If you’ve got a bunch of teenagers in the squad then you want them to see the benchmark that Corban Piper sets with his attitude and intensity. All this on a scholarship deal too. Sign him up, he’s earned it.

The other expiring scholar is Dublin Boon who is the third-choice goalkeeper. Only been with the academy for about a year. Clearly one for the future, although it’s hard to see him progressing much further in the next season or two. Even if Oluwayemi leaves, they’d likely want an experienced backup for Alby Kelly-Heald (e.g. Jack Duncan to Alex Paulsen). Not sure how that’ll unfold, especially with a few other classy keepers in the reserves (Matt Foord most notably). Depends if Boon’s open to another scholarship spot or not.

That leaves Scott Wootton and Stefan Colakovski. The former has played every single minute so far. The latter got injured after only making six appearances off the bench. Hard to say with Cola because it’ll all depend on how he bounces back from his torn ACL. There’s no guarantee he’ll be ready for the start of next season, and definitely not the start of preseason. That could mean the Nix are able to sign him cheap in the hope that they can nurture him back because Colakovski is a good age and profile for this squad, someone who could help drive the standards among a pack of very inexerienced attackers (outside of Kosta and the imports). But it could as easily be the reason they let him walk (limp) away, with too many holes in the squad that need filling to waste one on a fella with a long term injury.

Wootton’s had a couple of stinker games but he’s had far more that went in the other direction. His veteran presence alongside Isaac Hughes has no doubt been massive for Hughesy, not to mention Alby Kelly-Heald behind them. Wootts is in his fourth season with the club and is eight games away from making it two years in a row in which he’s played every single minute. Can’t argue with that for availability. Pace can be an issue sometimes and he does occasionally struggle with his passing from the back. He’s 33 years old which isn’t anything to worry about for a central defender but they do need to be careful to avoid another David Ball situation in the future. Unlike Ball, Wootton could probably still command a cashie gig in the Middle East if it becomes a haggle over length of contract (and he was linked with a move to Japan not so long ago).

Always worth remembering that just because the club want to retain a player, it doesn’t mean the player wants to stay. Having run through all of these contract situations, it doesn’t seem like there’s a lot of wiggle room... but there will be. There always is. Players are forever coming and going in the A-League.

Who’ll Be Among The Next Crop Of Academy Graduates?

The Phoenix already have five players on scholarship contracts for next season (assuming nobody’s been quietly upgraded) so there’s no need for a huge influx of fresh blood. That’s very helpful given what we’re learning about how it usually takes a three or four years to figure the ALM stuff out. But there’s always room for one or two more and every season a few uncontracted folks pop up along the way. Lachlan Candy debuted a few weeks back without a contract. Nathan Walker didn’t have one when he started in week one (though he soon signed for a four-year bag). You always wanna stay up to date on the WeeNix situation because things can happen suddenly at this club. Lucky for you, there’s already a Niche Cache article all about the next crop of academy grads so there ya go.

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