The team has been finalised. 211 athletes will represent Aotearoa with that fern on their chests, the largest ever contingent that New Zealand has sent to an Olympic Games beating the 199 who went to Rio in 2016. 22 different sports will be partaken in by those 211 athletes (101 women, 110 men). They range in age from 17 year old Erika Fairweather (swimming) to 51 year old Bruce Goodin (equestrian). There are 118 first timers and 93 Olympic veterans amongst the crew – with Valerie Adams and Nick Willis each competing at a fifth event. Sarah Hirini and Hamish Bond will share the flag bearing duties.

And that’s during a pandemic with several known names not amongst them. Eliza McCartney has been battling injuries for the last two years and wasn’t able to recover fully in time to qualify. The nation’s fastest man and woman both had qualifying times quick enough for selection but neither Zoe Hobbs nor Eddie Osei-Nketia will be there because the NZOC is a bit stingy about sending athletes just for the vibes. They have this thing about there needing to be a reasonable possibility of a top-16 finish... which means semi-finals in the 100m sprints and that wasn’t determined to be the case. Each of them vented about that silliness on their Instas. Then you’ve got the story of triathlete Simone Ackermann who lives in Whangarei but missed out on the NZ team last time so she switched allegiances to South Africa, the country of her birth, and has qualified to represent them in Tokyo. Or tales like that of the two national basketball teams who weren’t even able to attend their qualifying tournaments because of financial constraints.

There are always gonna be hard luck ones like those, sadly. It’s particularly odd when you think of the case of those sprinters, a 20 year old and a 23 year old who’ll be coming into their prime next time around and who could have benefited so much from this experience. But it is what it is. Obviously those participant numbers are boosted by having both men’s and women’s football, hockey, and rugby sevens squads there. Which, actually, might boost the numbers even higher than that 211 tally because that number doesn’t seem to include the four travelling reserves from each football team who have been elevated to full roster sports at late notice.

Participation is cool. You go to the Olympics, you get to call yourself an Olympian. Those are some top shelf bragging rights, right there – and a major reason why it woulda been cool to have the two sprinters there. But what about medals? At Rio 2016 those 199 athletes took home 18 total medals (4 goals, 9 silvers, 5 bronzes), a kiwi record... although only in the overalls. The NZ team took home 8 golds at LA 1984 and 6 at London 2012 so those are still the benchmarks to beat in terms of golds, which is how the official medal tables are ranked.

Data analysts Gracenote have us winning 9 golds and 20 overall medals in Tokyo by their prediction models. Both tallies would be amazing. Both would be new national bests. A quick squizz suggests that bookmakers are thinking something similar, while Sport NZ have set the official target at 16 medals as a minimum and for sure that feels gettable.

So let’s work through the NZ Team and figure out where those medals might come from. No surprises, most of our golds tend to come from water sports and that’s likely to be the same again. Starting with Lisa Carrington who picked up a gold and a bronze last time in her two events and is highly favoured to add at least one more golden one this time around (if not two, if not four). Carrington’s also competing in doubles and fours so it could be a huge couple weeks for her – Carrington’s K-2 500m partner is Caitlin Regal who is also in the K-1 500m and who had the world’s leading time in that event in 2018. Oh and Luuka Jones got a silver in the K-1 slalom last time too so can’t sleep on a repeat dose there.

Flip it over to the rowers and New Zealand picked up golds at the 2019 World Champs in women’s pair (Grace Prendergast & Kerri Gowler), women’s double sculls (Brooke Donaghue & Olivia Loe), and the women’s eights. That Gowler/Prendergast duo is a major favourite to pick up gold, while Hannah Osborne has come in for Loe in the double sculls but they’ll be right up there too, as will the eights who might be the best bet of the lot of them. Also got Emma Twigg there trying to go better than her fourth place in Rio, she’s competing in single sculls (and was second in the 2019 Worlds). The men aren’t quite as stacked this time around but we’ve got boats in four of the same five categories as the women (single sculls, pair, double sculls & eight – there’s also a women’s quadruple sculls with no men’s equivalent entered) and we all know what kiwi rowers are like at these suckers. We’ve got killer rowers popping outta all corners.

Same deal with sailors. Peter Burling and Blair Tuke in the 49ers are the headliners, seeking to chase America’s Cup triumph with an Olympic gold for a damn near perfect 2021, while there are also great odds on the likes of Sam Meech in the men’s Laser, Alex Maloney & Molly Meech in the women’s 49erFX, and Micah Wilkinson & Erica Dawson in the mixed Nacra 17. Maloney & Meech got silver last time while Mr Meech (Sam and Molly are brother and sister) got a bronze for the collection.

And before you dry off, one of the most exciting prospects of all is Lewis Clareburt who fronts a seven-strong swimming contingent and will be competing in the 200 m individual medley and 400 m individual medley. He was third in the 400m IM at the last Commonwealth Games and, even more impressively, third again in a stronger field at the 2019 World Aquatics Championships. If he can do something special then Clareburt would be New Zealand’s first swimming medallist since Danyon Loader.

After which we’ve gotta take a detour past the rugby fields where the men’s and women’s Rugby Sevens teams are both World Sevens Series defending champs. The women’s side is a stronger than the men’s one, they’re further out on top with fewer major challengers... but remember that neither took home golds last time. The women lost to Aussie in the final while the men didn’t medal at all (and lost three of their four games). Points to prove for both sides, you’d have to think.

Over to the cycling track now where there’s a heap of medal possibilities but gotta highlight the men's team pursuit who got silver at last year’s Worlds, as well as Campbell Stewart in the omnium, while the men’s team sprint trio is pretty strong too. Two-thirds of the lads who won a silver in Rio in that event are back for another punt (Ethan Mitchell and Sam Webster, with Sam Dakin replacing Eddie Dawkins). There are eleven different track cycling events with NZers involved. Heaps more where these blokes came from.

There are probably only two athletics entrants who can claim medal favouritism and those are the obvious two, the king and queen of shot put: Valerie Adams and Tom Walsh. Both are peaking at the right time, with Adams throwing as well as she has for a couple years in what will most likely be the 36 year old icon’s last Games. The field is stacked in both events but Adams does have the tied-third season best for the year. However while there’s no Michelle Carter, who pipped her in the final round in 2016, China’s Lijao Gong is the frontrunner at this stage.

Similar yarns for Tom Walsh. He threw a 22.22m earlier in the month and that was his best throw since his personal best of 22.90m in October 2019... but unfortunately for him his main rival Ryan Crouser broke the world record a month ago. No kidding. Old mate threw 23.37 metres. If he does that again in Tokyo it’s all over... but Walsh has the range to beat anyone else in the field. Don’t think there’d be any others in the athletics with gold medal potential but there could be one or two capable of getting a medal with the race/throw of their lives. Zane Robertson in the marathon, he’s always good value. Cool to see Nick Willis has company in the 1500m with Sam Tanner also there. Heaps of kiwi history in that event.

At which point we’re mostly talking about hopefuls rather than expectfuls. There are quite a few competing on the equestrian team and that’s another sport that New Zealand has done well with in the past. The Black Sticks women’s hockey team are going decent these days, they’re a chance if things break right. Tell you what, you wouldn’t ordinarily say this about a kiwi football team but the men’s OlyWhites are razor sharp. It’s a 16-team tournament for the fellas and we’ve got the best possible draw (South Korea, Honduras & Romania). Sneak into the quarters and we’d be playing one of France, South Africa, Mexico or France. Strange things happen in Olympic football. It’s not out of the realms of imagination is all that needs saying.

David Nyika will be a fun one to follow in the men’s heavyweight boxing. Two wins will get him a medal, three and it’s a gold or a silver. Nyika has kept his pro career on the backburner to specifically target these games after missing out on qualifying last time. Two Comm Games golds, now here’s his chance to back it up at an Olympic event. He won’t be a bookie’s favourite but he’s very skilled and highly motivated and it’s boxing where one punch can change everything.

Then of course there’s Lydia Ko. Silver medallist at the previous Olympics and while she might not be winning the majors that she once was, the women’s golfing scene is far more competitive these days and Ko usually tends to be there or thereabouts. Always in contention, that’s how you win these things. Plus shooter Natalie Rooney’s in the women’s trap again seeking to repeat the dose of her silver last time (or perhaps even go better). Always gotta acknowledge the repeat offenders as they’ve already proved themselves capable. Also chuck in a few triathletes who could get lucky. And maybe, just maybe, if Marcus Daniell and Michael Venus can go nuts in the men’s tennis doubles then you never know – Venus is a past French Open doubles winner after all.

Finally we’ve got some weightlifting, although Laurel Hubbard’s gold hopes are not what certain [bigoted] people would have you believe. She’d have to go miles beyond her best to get on a podium. It’s possible for sure... but she’s only ranked seventh in the division and finished sixth at the 2019 World Champs with a total score of 286kg which was a hefty 25kgs off placing and 46kgs off China’s Li Wenwen who took gold. Li Wenwen is also the world record holder in the weight class. So if people get to whinging about Hubbard’s participation, don’t engage in the idiocy. Just support a kiwi athlete trying their best and representing the nation. Also, highly doubt he’ll be in the medal hunt in a tough division but it’ll be cool to see David Liti in action again after his Comm Games gold a couple years back.

Does all that add up to twenty-odd medals and eight golden ones? Only time will tell.

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