Breaking Down State of Origin 1

This State of Origin feels different. But let's be honest, each year it feels slightly different. New South Wales pick someone new who is going to greatly help their cause, they triumph greater unity within the squad, they tell all who will listen how they are going to beat Queensland and they for whatever reason get in to the pre game niggle and banter that Mal Meninga usually starts.

This year it's a bit different. Much is the same - my senses have been influenced by a lot of the propaganda from the NSW camp - but it's still a little different. NSW have got out of their Sydney bubble, they are in a camp which is being led by a hands on Laurie Daley and their two young halves have been given the responsibility of leading the players on the field. 

Game 1 is in Brisbane. It's at Suncorp Stadium and many of us simply don't realise how much of a cauldron Suncorp is. Hence why I find it hard to bet against the Maroons this year but a Game 1 win in Brisbane would be huge for NSW. 

Thanks for having us Coffs Harbour! The boys are ready to fly the coup #UpTheBlues pic.twitter.com/s8IhUzWwQi

— NSWRL (@NSWRL) May 25, 2014

NSW will bring the pain and enthusiasm needed to take the game to QLD. However in years gone by you got the feeling that NSW would get amped up to the level of no return, where QLD would maintain composure. First things first, this attitude could be different for Game 1. NSW have players in form, instead of guys who had earned their jersey with previous Origin performances. Most notably, Jarryd Hayne who is playing at such a level that he'd probably be the starting fullback even if he had never played Origin before. Hayne will return kicks well, he'll pick up the ball pick out Jonathan Thurston or Cooper Cronk and run straight at them. He'll also be extremely important during the nothing sets of six (midfield, nothing doing) if NSW shift it wide and Hayne is found lurking 1 v 1. He'll feature heavily in the attacking zone as you would expect. His passing game will be huge, he'll get on the outside of defenders with his speed and he'll draw in 4 defenders any time he's close to the try line.

Robbie Farah is also in that category. He's leading his Tigers extremely well, he's doing his dummy half duties extremely well and everything seems to have clicked into place. Last year I saw Farah take a few wrong options at key times. When you factor in that both Hayne and Farah are the leaders of their club teams who are doing very well and they're both in form, I think you'll see them play with a sense of composure and ease unseen before.

Josh Reynolds and Trent Hodkinson are faced with a tough ask. Leading a group of men who have only experienced defeat. People forget that Hodkinson came in to the NRL and in his first season was one of the best halfbacks going around - DreamTeam fans know all about this. Reynolds also hasn't really taken any backwards steps in his NRL career, they have both come in to the NRL and lead from the outset. They'll have to do a lot of defence - QLD won game 3 last year by torturing James Maloney. 

The most impressive thing that Reynolds and Hodkinson can do is with their boots. If they are able to keep QLD coming out from deep in their own end, then NSW can utilise their size and enthusiasm to pin QLD in their half. This just means finding green pastures and no easy 20m restarts. We'll see what Reynolds and Hodkinson are capable of because with Billy Slater's ability to read the play and cover distance along with Brent Tate's experience and Darius Boyd's time in the #1 jersey, it won't be easy. 

The battle of the centres will be amazing. Justin Hodges and Greg Inglis vs Michael Jennings and Josh Morris. Both teams will know that it'll be pretty difficult to beat their opposition 1 v 1, so expect them to target the halves and be the recipients of some well designed plays. Remember the ANZAC test match? Greg Inglis played centre and ran a lot of unders lines or cuts where he would run against the grain back infield. This is not only how I see QLD getting Greg Inglis involved, but it's a good example of how both teams will use their centres who all have speed, agility and strength. They are all supreme athletes, much more so than their opposing edge second rower or half.

The big boppers, for me it's all pretty equal. NSW possibly have the size advantage, but QLD have greater skill and mobility. Paul Gallen and Corey Parker cancel each other out. If there's anyone who can call himself an equal to Paul Gallen it's Corey Parker. Expect Nate Myles to play the whole game as there is no prop cover on the bench. Ben Te'o and Josh Papalii will probably come on in the middle as 'props' and it's likely that Aidan Guerra will also do the same. 

It will be interesting to see when and for how long Matt Scott is benched for. NSW have James Tamou, Aaron Woods and Trent Merrin who are all very good props. Without Scott on the field, QLD could struggle for some go forward, but they'll be able to play with a bit more speed and agility. This is only heightened by the fact that NSW have Ryan Hoffman and Beau Scott starting. They'll be playing tough and I reckon they'll do a good job of it. Tony Williams, Luke Lewis and Anthony Watmough will provide the foot work and mobility, but NSW will need Hoffman and Scott to lay the platform.

Daly Cherry-Evans. He's the key. He'll come on and will have to do a job as a forward - defending in the middle and taking tough hit ups. But when QLD decide to play some footy, they'll have one of the best play-makers in the NRL up their sleeve. With DCE, Thurston and Cronk on the field, who do you put pressure on? How can you prepare for it when you have no idea who will get the ball and when? In my humble opinion, right now DCE is equal to Cronk in their form etc this season. In fact DCE is probably equal to Thurston. This allows Coach Mal and QLD to rely on DCE to execute plays and also create + he'll be coming on when guys are a bit tired, their feet aren't moving how they want and he'll be the spark.

Many people say they know what to expect from QLD and their crop of greats. For me, I love tuning in to State of Origin every year because I don't know what to expect from them. The only thing I expect is for them to reinvent how they play, if only ever so slightly. Every year we see minor adjustments made, they have to. You can't expect to churn out the same game plan and win, as many fans seem to think. QLD have some of the greatest minds in rugby league, the greatest in Cameron Smith and I'm getting excited just thinking about what they'll produce. How will Greg Inglis be used? How will QLD put pressure on Reynolds and Hodkinson? What plays will get the best from Billy Slater? How will they counteract their perceived size disadvantage? 

Basically, how will QLD use their tools? How they use their tools in Game 1, will be different to Game 2 and 3.

Why do I think this year will be different? It's always different. You just have to look a little bit harder. Do I think the overall result will be different? Not really, but the styles and attitudes will be different. Queensland evolve and adapt, that obviously produces differences. Things for NSW have already been different. Whether these differences produce a different result, we'll wait and see.

My Game 1 prediction - Queensland 18 NSW 12.

State of Origin for Dumbos

Maybe you're not really a rugby league fan. Maybe you don't tune in to the NRL each week and even if you do, you might be that person who asks dumb questions. State of Origin draws in a large audience of general sports fans and those who just have nothing else to do on a Wednesday. We know this because Ray Warren (the commentator guy) along with his comrades Peter Sterling and Phil Gould usually dumb it down a bit, welcome the 'world' to the broadcast and explain things for the newbies. It's a pretty big deal, we all love it, you all love it and there are a few intricacies that go on. And a few glaringly obvious things.

We also know Origin's pulling power because so many bars in Auckland are packed to the brim ... I know for sure that there's not that many NRL fans in Auckland.

Dinner inside Camp Maroon, seafood on the menu @camsmith9 and JT are loving it #QLDER pic.twitter.com/V6xvIiaHzx

— Queensland Maroons (@Qld_Maroon) May 24, 2014

So thank your lucky stars that I'm here to fill you in...

• First of all don't tune in to the broadcast when it starts in ya TV guide. This first match is the 100th State of Origin game and usually there is a whole lot of dramatic and cinematic build up ... so expect to endure a whole lot of build up before the game. You'll get a historical run down, you'll get Darren Lockyer and Andrew Johns breaking down the game and you'll get Phil Gould earning an Oscar for his on field motivational speech. This is either a good time to sink the majority of your beers or just go do something else.
• Yes well done! Darren Lockyer voice does resemble *insert gravel/throat cancer type of reference. He's still cool.
• He's got Maori tattoos and his name is clearly Maori, yes James Tamou plays for NSW. Don't bother asking how or why, it just happens.
• Quick play the balls are the name of the game. This means that players running the ball will try their hardest to land on their bellys and get up quick, while defenders will do everything to slow it down. This is where most of the penalties will happen. 
• Both teams will walk the very fine line of the law. Penalties are huge in big games and often lead to points, but both teams know that getting quickly off their defensive line, putting pressure on the other team and slowing the play the ball down are all very important. 
• Yes they play for the same NRL team and yup they do play for Australia together, but they hate each other. They'll smash each other. They may punch each other. That's Origin.
• Keep an eye on where the game is being played especially in the early stages. The team who are on top will roll down the field, kick and get the other team coming off their own try line. A poor set of 6 followed by a poor kick results in the other team getting the ball on their 30m line. 
• Momentum. You can see it, you can feel it and you can probably hear it. It'll change every 10-15 minutes and if you can't figure it out just go with the vibe. It's important because say if NSW have everything going their way and are on top, but can't score then QLD will put that in their bank and wait for/earn a shift in momentum (a penalty, NSW mistake, line break, good kick etc).
• Queensland have done so well because they are always cool, calm and smart. Despite their dominance there have been many times where they are under the pump and have just found a way. In recent years, Cameron Smith has basically won the game for QLD with his genius play and kicking game and he's the man to keep an eye on.
• If you find yourself struggling to keep up with the game and its intricacies, just enjoy the collisions. The first hit up is always a biggun, but throughout the game a strong run or a back tackle can turn the odds in your teams favour. 
• Fights. They sell State of Origin on the back of all the fights and many expect it to happen every game. There's always some sort of scuffle, but with players likely to be sent to the sin bin for throwing a punch you'd imagine players to have some restraint. 10 minutes with 12 men can have have pretty heavy consequences so while you should expect passion and pride to boil over, don't be disappointed when players aren't trading blows.
• The word out of the NSW camp is that they're doing things a bit differently this year. They've moved their base out of Sydney, coach Laurie Daley is much more hands on and it's clear that they're taking a much more professional approach this year. Robbie Farrah and Jarryd Hayne are the main men, both are in great form and are not only NSW's best players, but also their leaders.
• Kicking games. Long kicks that are caught on full are bad. Long kicks that find open pastures are good. Attacking kicks which result in a contest for the ball are good. Kicks that lead to a goal line drop out are good.
• Refrain from looking at the clock. These games go by in a blur and you'll find yourself looking at the clock to see 30 minutes have already flown by. Just don't bother ... until sometime in the second half when you should check how long is left and what the score is.
• It's probably best if you pick a side as well. Everyone around you will have a team and State of Origin fence sitting is frowned upon. Just pick a colour and roll with it. Then be prepared to roll with the ups and downs that will come with that decision. 
• Appreciate the battles. If you're tuned in enough you'll notice which players are playing well, which halves are dominating and dictating but take note of if there's any niggle between two guys. The hit up/play the ball process allows for plenty of niggle and it's always good fun to keep an eye on what happens after they play the ball.
• Enjoy it. Don't be that dick asking a whole lot of questions. If you're not really interested, just get overly drunk on a Wednesday night, otherwise enjoy the spectacle that it is.