Here’s Why Fourth Place Ain’t Such A Bad Place for the NZ Breakers
Alright then, forget about first. Forget about second too, as it happens. The Breakers had their chance to book a place in the semis last week with a double header against the Illawarra Hawks and they swept them to make it happen. They had their chance this week to challenge Melbourne United for first place over a double header and they lost both, which coupled with a stink record against Adelaide and the 36ers’ own hiding handed down to the Hawks, means that third place is the highest the Breakers can finish now. Wanna play in the Grand Final? The Breaks are gonna need to win an away game in the semis then.
Melbourne are set for first, Adelaide cannot catch them. Perth are still duking it out for second since they split their season series with the Sixers (and they take it slightly on points difference) but most likely they’re looking to hold off the Breakers and take third given that Adelaide only need to beat Brisbane at home to end that dream. Perth and NZ, on the other hand, are tied for wins and Perth again take that on points differential. Chances are that the table ends as is, unless something goes awry.
And there’d be nothing wrong with that. The Breakers having to play first-placed Melbourne sounds like a worst-case scenario but in fact they’re probably the best team they could play. Obviously a bit of home-court would be nice but you can’t have everything. The Breakers blew their chance for such a luxury and will have to do it the hard way. All goods, there’s no other way to win a championship.
The Breaks were kinda average against Adelaide and Perth all season. There were close wins and big defeats, both the Sixers and Cats had 15+ point victories in New Zealand. Melly just did the same by dropping a century on them in an 18pt win but there were a couple circumstances here that should give NZB plenty of hope. Not to mention that this would be a belter for the neutrals. There’s a real rivalry growing between the Breakers and United and it’s not all sportsmanship and respect like the recurring duel with the Perth Wildcats either.
It’s all built up over the last couple years. Back from when each of the two teams had that one local player who was head and shoulders above the rest of the league in their shooting abilities. Both sitting on the fringes of an NBA career that never happened: Chris Goulding and Corey Webster. Similar players too, each natural scorers with the ability to completely dominate a game. CG43 once scored 50 in an NBL game. Corey Webster was less than two weeks away from making the New Orleans Pelicans regular season roster.
Both those two absolutely lit it up in the 2015-16 season. Kevin Lisch won MVP but Goulding and Webster were right there with him, Goulding finishing runner up and Wesbter probably woulda been close had he not missed time early in the season while still gunning for that NBA contract. Even still, it’s a travesty that Webby only made the All-NBL second team.
Breakers being the Breakers though, Webster ended up going further in the playoffs than anyone in that First Five. Melbourne United had topped the ladder and they had high hopes for a championship to crown their efforts but instead they dropped back to back games to Webster and the Breakers to be eliminated in the semis. (The Perth Wildcats went on to take the Grand Final in a blowout game three, one more chapter in that particular rivalry).
A lot of fans also seem to recall a moment earlier in that season when Goulding drew an unsportsmanlike foul on Corey Webster late in the fourth that effectively won Melbourne the game. A foul which most Breakers supporters would prefer a different four letter word beginning with F to describe: FLOP. Then there’s the fact that Melbourne were the ones to sign Cedric Jackson (and then cut him) and Tai Wesley after they left the Breaks, even bringing in former NZB head coach Dean Vickerman this season too. Stir some Master vs Apprentice vibes in the pot.
Incredibly, before this weekend the Breakers had won 10 of 11 games against United since that particular infamous flopular contest. They flipped the script here with 89-83 and 100-82 defeats but that only makes the prospect of a semi-final series between the two even more tasteful. Especially with the scenes between Edgar Sosa and Casper Ware during/after the first game in Melly.
Head to head, that was just a fantastic matchup between two of the leading MVP candidates. Across the two games here’s how they stacked up…
Casper Ware: 69 MIN | 33 PTS (7/27 FG, 5/15 3PT) | 6 REB | 14 AST | 8 TO | 0 STL
Edgar Sosa: 59 MIN | 47 PTS (17/29 FG, 7/14 3PT) | 7 REB | 10 AST | 5 TO | 2 STL
Yeah man, Sosa slayed him… but mostly only in the second game when Ware shot 2/11 for 7 points while instead Goulding took over with 21 points on 12 shots and Josh Boone was yet again the dependable maestro he always is with 19 points & 7 rebounds. But Sosa remains the number one reason why the Breakers should rate themselves to topple Melbourne in the playoffs should that eventuality come to pass.
Sosa’s the best scorer on the team by a long shot. Newbill, Abercrombie and Penney can all hit a mean jump shot but only Newbill can really play off the dribble of those three and he’s probably got the worst jumper of the trio. Rob Loe’s suddenly found his three point stroke with 4/8 against Melbourne combined, which is very useful, although Shea Ili disappeared with only one field goal in the two games. Mika Vukona had a solid 11 pts in the home game but is basically only a defensive guy these days. Alex Pledger was injured and Rakeem Christmas is still new to the side. Sosa is the key and he has to be out there bossing the way for this team – with points tallies of 22 and 25 he just proved that he can score on the top team where everyone else struggled in one or the other. He needs help… but it all still starts with him.
Bear in mind that Kirk Penney didn’t play and that Alex Pledger was playing hurt. Two more valuable rotation members that weren’t able to contribute these last couple days. Two more reasons to think that NZB can step it up when it matters most.
The Breakers came out hot in each of these games. They dropped 31 points in the first quarter in Melbourne and another 30 back home. Problem was they followed that with an 11 point quarter in that home game while only scoring 29 points in the second half in Oz. On both occasions it was Edgar Sosa (with a bit of DJ Newbill) that got things started. Then it all collapsed against a strong zone offence and some misfiring alternative scorers.
None more so than the travesty that was their free throw shooting. That IS and continues to BE their free throw shooting. Abercrombie was 1/8 from the free throw line at Spark Arena. That wouldn’t even be acceptable from the three-point line, let alone from the damned charity stripe. You could see the agony on his face, once it’s in your head it’s there to stay. At one point he had four straight shots, the Breakers down 39-42. Chance to put them back in front on the brink of half-time… nope. He could only make one and Melly went on to take a five-point lead into HT before outscoring the Breakers by ten in the third. Call it a turning point, if you will. It clearly affected Abercrombie’s confidence and he shot 2/10 (0/4 from deep) for 5 points in that game. That cannot happen again, like, ever.
And you know what? It probably won’t.
Then clearly giving up 100 points at home is unacceptable… but, again, what are the chances of Chris Goulding hitting all those off-balance shots like a bloody magician next time? We all know he’s capable but there’s always an element of luck involved. Honestly, some of these shots…
Good as Ware was in one game, he was pretty average in the other. Boone did what he wanted but a fully fit Alex Pledger might help that. The one issue that isn’t easily fixed is how that bench stacks up against Melbourne’s. When guys like David Barlow and Peter Hooley are factors on offence then something needs to change. Well, Paul Henare’s gonna be a busy bloke with Tall Blacks duty coming up but that’s his homework. Kirk Penney’s scoring boost alone isn’t gonna make that bench more effective. They’re gonna need Shea Ili to hot some jump shots and Finn Delaney to take a further step defensively.
The formula’s all there in the first quarters though. Both times the Breakers took big leads but couldn’t hold on. The two previous times they played United? A 12-point win over there and a 17-point win back here. They’re capable of sustaining a full four-quarter performance and when they do, they win. It may not have gone as planned on the weekend but they’ve got nothing to be afraid of if they end up battling with Melbourne again in the playoffs.
MVP Points vs Melbourne
3 – Edgar Sosa
2 – DJ Newbill
1 – Rakeem Christmas
MVP Points at Melbourne
3 – Edgar Sosa
2 – DJ Newbill
1 – Rob Loe
Season MVP Standings (after 26 games)
Edgar Sosa – 38 Pts
DJ Newbill – 32
Tom Abercrombie – 21
Shea Ili – 14
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