The Great NBA Tank Race of 2018
The National Basketball Association of America is nothing if not a league of trends and patterns. Every now and then a visionary comes along and changes things and very quickly their ideas are incorporated into the rest of the league as everyone else plays copycat.
Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors brought a three-point shooting barrage into the mainstream, as well as popularising small-ball killer lineups, and now everyone’s out there trying to do the same (and the Houston Rockets are the only team brave enough to take it further, good luck to those jokers). The death of the old fashioned big man has been prematurely reported but it’s definitely fair to say that most coaches prefer a five who can make threes and stretch the floor. And there’s no question that the market for switchable wings who can shoot from range is larger (and therefore deeper) than ever before.
These trends come and go in cycles. Soon enough every team will be looking for a Steven Adams or Clint Capela, a centre who can rebound at both ends and defend capably enough when switched onto guards. Soon enough three point shooting will lose a hint of its effectiveness, probably as coaches and defenders come up with better ways to prevent it. That’s just how these things work. Often it’s the natural evolution of the game, sometimes it’s even NBA rule changes that predicate this stuff.
Right now the sexy trend is tanking. Everybody’s doing it. You rest a bugger here, you trade a bugger there, you take an extra day off for every injury and you get those young bucks out there in the clutch. Every team is playing to win, every player is playing to win, but not every one of them is playing as hard to win as each other. The cream of the crop is too sweet, free agency too predictable. The most reliable way to rebuild a non-competitive team is to get a superstar in the draft and arrange it all around them. To get that superstar? Most of all you need luck. Gotta get the right guy who develops in the right way – there’s no science behind it, otherwise what’s Giannis Antetokounmpo doing getting drafted at 15 while Anthony Bennett goes first that same year? But your luck gets better the higher your pick and your pick gets higher the more you lose.
Which is why there’s a tanking epidemic this NBA season. You can call it farcical if you want, it’s safe to say that the NBA isn’t happy about this and lottery changes are likely. Too many teams are on the bandwagon and it’s ruining games. This is the ultimate culmination of The Process and hopefully the only time we have to deal with this and, in that faith, it makes it safe to enjoy the ridiculous drama of Losing.
There are eight, probably nine, teams who came out of the All Star Break feeling like they had no chance of making the playoffs. Immediately things took a turn towards the inadequate. Since the break, as of the morning of March 9 in NZ, the nine tankers have a combined record of 12-51. Of those 12 wins, nine were against each other where, regardless of intentions, somebody had to win eventually.
Spare a thought for the Los Angeles Lakers. Not good enough to make the playoffs but too good for the tanking extravaganza. They’ve already got their young guns in Brandon Ingram and Lonzo Ball (with able deputies in Kyle Kuzma and a couple others) and, being from Los Angeles and all, their idea is to target free agency for the talent that’ll take them over the top. It’s been ugly for a couple years but you can see what Luke Walton’s getting at with them. A few quality trades made sure they had the cap room to target guys this upcoming summer as well, so they’re free to win as many games as they can… even if the playoffs are too far off in the distance. But hey, they’re 6-1 since the break.
Word is that this is a heavy upcoming draft class, though probably only down to around five or six sure bets. The difference between being made to pick third or fourth might not be much but, with nine teams jostling, the difference between five and seven could be huge. Nobody will know for sure until several years down the line when these players start to hit their peaks but you don’t wanna cut corners. Here are the nine tankers in all their inglorious chaos.
New York Knicks
Current Record: 24-41
Wins Since ASG: Magic
Remaining Tank Games: Mavs, Bulls & Magic
NYK were all goods until Kristaps Porzingis did his knee in. Having moved on from the Carmelo Anthony era, they’d found their star and were busy adding talent around him. Then Porzingod did his ACL in a loss to the Bucks and from that night onwards they’ve won once and lost ten times. The playoffs disappeared in a hurry but a top ten draft pick to add to the roster reappeared as their consolation. Maybe even a top five or six if they’re this pathetic for the rest of the way. They’re not as blatantly on the tank as others, it’s just that they relied on Porzingis so much that they haven’t been able to cover that over. So they’re taking a good look at their three young point guards to see what they’ve got, making sure to maximise the minutes of their fringe blokes to see who’s worth keeping around, all the while talking a big game. It’s the Knicks. You know what they’re like. At least Phil Jackson’s gone.
Chicago Bulls
Current Record: 22-42
Wins Since ASG: Mavericks & Grizzlies
Remaining Tank Games: Hawks (A), Grizzlies (A), Knicks (A), Magic (A), Nets & Nets (A)
Early in February, rookie breakout Lauri Markkanen missed a couple games to be present at the birth of his first child. He was supposed to join the team again to play the Kings on Feb 5 but his flight was cancelled due to poor weather. Despite having a full 24 hours to get another flight from Chicago to Sacramento, despite the advent of private jets, the team instead declared that Markkanen would not be able to travel and therefore play. The Kings won 104-98, a tanking victory for the Bulls.
Their season began with Jimmy Butler being traded to Minnesota. Next thing Bobby Portis was decking Nikola Mirotic in training, concussing one of their better players. Absolute shambles. But the Bulls are kinda decent, certainly better than this record. Markkanen is awesome and Zach LaVine is getting back in shape now. They’ve seen things from Kris Dunn that impress. Waiver-wonder David Nwaba can play. Mirotic has been traded and is doing good things with the red hot Pelicans but Portis is having his best season. Haven’t seen Robin Lopez for a while though, the Bulls’ main tank technique has been resting players – to the point where the NBA slapped them down for not playing healthy players. A run of 10 wins and 2 defeats in December proves they’ve been phoning it in ever since.
Orlando Magic
Current Record: 20-45
Wins Since ASG: Pistons & Grizzlies
Remaining Tank Games: Kings (A), Suns, Nets, Bulls, Hawks (A), Knicks (A) & Mavs
A couple weeks into the season the Orlando Magic were the talk of the town. 6-2 with wins over the Cavaliers and Spurs, what the hell was happening here? Nothing, as it turns out. They’ve since had four separate losing streaks of seven or more defeats. Most recently was a heartbreaking loss to the Lakers, in which a crucial late call went against them. Perfect news for a tank team, they all love a moral victory that keeps the competitive juices flowing while still banking another L. However coach Frank Vogel isn’t resting players or sabotaging things, outside of a few inefficient lineups. Aaron Gordon, Nikola Vucevic, Evan Fournier and Jonathon Simmons make for a decent core of a decent team. Yet they keep losing. Maybe they just suck?
Sacramento Kings
Current Record: 20-45
Wins Since ASG: Nets & Knicks
Remaining Tank Games: Magic, Hawks, Suns (A) & Grizzlies (A)
Famously the most inept team in the NBA, when the Kings traded away Boogie Cousins they officially embraced the tanking culture that they seemed to have been accidentally pursuing already. They have a couple nice players there. George Hill was doing well after they paid him nicely to join the cause and so they traded him to Cleveland. Zach Randolph is a placeholder who won’t need to hang out long term. Problem is they’re gonna get a decent pick and take the wrong guy. Forget about the Kings.
Dallas Mavericks
Current Record: 20-45
Wins Since ASG: Nuggets
Remaining Tank Games: Grizzlies, Knicks (A), Nets (A), Kings (A) & Suns
Owner Mark Cuban got fined $600k for admitting that it was in his team’s best interests to tank. They’ve spent so long trying to be as good as possible, swimming against the tide, but with an almost 40 year old Dirk Nowitzki and a group of younger dudes, a few of them undrafted, losing has come easy this season for the Mavs. Rick Carlisle remains a mastermind coach which has led to some magnificently tanked defeats in which late leads are coughed up by youthful lineups and big deficits are almost but not quite overcome. And some massive blowouts, of course. Can’t do it without the massive blowouts. A lot of this season is about teaching Dennis Smith Jr the lessons of the NBA so he can be the point guard of the future, then the draft can get them a decent big man or another scoring wing. And sorta like the last year of Kobe Bryant with the Lakers, Mavs fans don’t really care about the defeats as long as they can still see Saint Dirk making it swish.
Atlanta Hawks
Current Record: 20-45
Wins Since ASG: Suns & Pacers
Remaining Tank Games: Bulls, Kings (A) & Magic
Gotta feel stink for a team that had its entire starting five picked as the Eastern Conference Player of the Month for January 2015 and three years later not a single one of them still plays for the team. The Hawks have knocked back talk of tanking the whole way and this is a team with ten straight playoff appearances so you get why. Dennis Schroder and John Collins are really good young players to take them down the road however without a lot else they’re left to try figure out what to do with them. Lots of cap flexibility so hopefully this is just an in-between season for the Hawks. Everyone sorta feels that way. No team wants to get stuck in the tank.
Brooklyn Nets
Current Record: 20-45
Wins Since ASG: Bulls
Remaining Tank Games: Mavs, Magic (A), Bulls (A), & Bulls
Weird case here because the Nets don’t control their first round draft pick and haven’t done so in ages. So as bad as they do here, it’s mostly for the benefit of the Cleveland Cavaliers. Hence technically they aren’t in the tank race but they’re here because they also aren’t out there to win. Sean Marks has been creative since rocking up as GM, he’s looking to find bargains and untapped talent. Coach Kenny Atkinson is looking to build a style of play and a team culture. Spencer Dinwiddie has been a massive discovery and they’re getting good stuff from Allen Crabbe and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson. (Concerns about D’Angelo Russell’s play since he came back from injury though). If Jeremy Lin hadn’t been hurt then they might have been winning a few more of these things but even still they’ve covered the points spread 59% of the time, second only to the Boston Celtics this season. The Nets aren’t tanking… but they also don’t really care about winning yet.
Phoenix Suns
Current Record: 19-47
Wins Since ASG: Grizzlies
Remaining Tank Games: Magic (A), Kings & Mavs (A)
The Suns have been in the tank for a couple years now and there’s not much too it for them either. Phoenix has a couple super interesting players already, including possible superstar Devin Booker, but they also have the youngest squad in the league. Youth = inexperience. Inexperience = poor game management. Poor game management = defeats. They’ve been working with an interim coach (Jay Triano) since after the third game of the season and veteran Tyson Chandler missed a few games recently with a neck thing but given the standard of the Suns’ defence, they don’t even need to rest dudes. A tough remaining schedule – with only three games against fellow tankers – means they’re a very good shot at numero uno in the draft.
Memphis Grizzlies
Current Record: 18-46
Wins Since ASG: None
Remaining Tank Games: Mavs (A), Bulls, Nets (A) & Kings
The Grizz, man. So good and so dependable for so long but they got stuck beneath a certain ceiling. They currently hold the worst record in the league and are nursing a 15-game losing streak. That’s pathetic, this is a quality team that won five of their first six games. However Marc Gasol is shooting at the worst FG% of his career (missing a lot of threes in there) with a career high in turnovers as well. A good reason for that is that Mike Conley only played 12 games before a heel injury ended his season in November, while Tyreke Evans has had a couple extended absences (including sitting healthy as they searched for a trade at the deadline, only not to trade him after all). As for Chandler Parsons, is he even an NBA player anymore?
Thus the Grizzlies have a unique opportunity to grab a top three pick and find the player that 33 year old Gasol can eventually pass the torch to. This is how tanking is supposed to work, just horrible luck piling up into a unique opportunity for an otherwise good team – the Spurs drafting Tim Duncan, for example. But huge minus points for sacking David Fizdale and pretending that they were gunning for the playoffs.
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