Breaking Down More Breakers Stuff (Like, Where'd Our Frontcourt Go?)
Whatever happens between now and next season, the Breakers are going to look extremely different. Since our last scribblings on the team there’s been one thing made very clear and that’s that Paul Henare’s focus on New Zealanders is over. In his two seasons as head coach they gave 11 games to Isaih Tueta as an injury replacement and that was the complete run of Australians in this team. The imports were Americans and the locals were all kiwis. Not so much any longer.
First off, the exits. Mika Vukona’s departure got the treatment last time and Rob Loe’s exit is not completely dissimilar to that. Vukona is an aging forward with diminishing production while Rob Loe is a younger stretch five with an inconsistent jump shot who never quite did what was hoped of him. Different situations but the same bottom line: neither was doing what the team required to win.
But Rob Loe has shown serious flashes. There was that second semi in which he scored 16 points on 6/6 shooting, for example. His game sort of relies on him being able to make his shots. He’s not a dominant rebounder, averaging 4.3 in 18 minutes last season, so his value is in stretching that floor and dragging out interior defenders. But then he also shot 8/15 from deep (inc. 4/5 from the top of the key) at the Comm Games and there was reason to think he might tie it all together in his third season with NZB.
Except then he went and signed with the Cairns Taipans (where he’ll be teammates with Jarrod Kenny). Fair enough, a change of scenery often does the trick and it’s probably a good thing to spread out a few more kiwis across the league… but that’s one more of last year’s team who won’t be returning. Loe spent the chunk of the previous season in a three-way scrap for minutes at centre with Alex Pledger and Rakeem Christmas. It’s unlikely that Xmas comes back and with the rumours now that Alex Pledger is on his way out, plus Vukona leaving, it looks like Kevin Braswell’s in for a complete overhaul of the frontcourt.
Alex Pledger’s rumoured release came out of the blue. He’s a contracted player. He’s also a veteran who’s played well over 200 games for the club. It wouldn’t be a lie to say he hasn’t quite been the same since a few bad injuries hit him hard but it also wouldn’t be a lie to say that he got messed around last season with his role and his minutes in constant change while still chucking up a ridiculously good +16.6 net rating (meaning the Breakers outscored opponents by 16.6 points per 100 possessions with The Chief out there), the best rating on the team by a distance – and the retired Kirk Penney was second. Rob Loe was third.
It’s actually quite hard to see why Pledger wouldn’t be wanted, has he done something wrong? He’s a guy who performs a specific task. He defends the rim well and has some decent touch in the paint offensively (although it can come and go). Good rebounder and a rare seven footer in this league. With Andrew Bogut signing for Sydney, Pledger is one of the few guys out there who might be able to do something on him. But maybe Braswell would rather a centre who can play with more pace and space, opening things up for his quick guards and the shooters around him. The Breakers offence got stagnant down the stretch last time and ended up being over-reliant on Edgar Sosa which can’t really be allowed to happen again. This could be his solution.
Plus there’s the important point to note that this is not an on-the-record statement we’re dealing with. There’s obviously something to it but we don’t know the ‘who’, ‘why’ or ‘when’ yet. Alex Pledger has every reason to think he wasn’t getting enough of a go with the Breakers and if Dean Vickerman dropped a hint or two with Melbourne then it’s easy to imagine him fancying that opportunity. Bigger role, defending champs, familiar coach… decent gig, for sure. Especially with the Breakers undergoing as much change as they are. This won’t be the same team as it has been for him.
Tai Wesley hasn’t been confirmed yet but it’s almost certain at this point that he’ll sign on and that’s a quality addition. What’s a little weirder is that the Breakers supposedly want Aussie forward Majok Majok as well, a guy who hasn’t done anything in the NBL to justify being better than bang average yet… although that’s not necessarily a reason to write him off. Majok’s the same age as Rob Loe and is currently doing his thing for Braswell at the Wellington Saints, with Tai Wesley rumoured to have given him a glowing recommendation. Definitely untapped potential there, see if that turns out to be true, but playing for the Saints seems to be a big factor in these things.
Jarrad Weeks is a funky one. 28 year old Aussie guard signing on a two-year deal having averaged 8.3 points and 2.0 assists this last season. He’ll be a return to the old days of having that one experienced battler from over the Tasman in the guard stocks – Daryl Corletto, Rhys Carter, etc. Nothing crazy there but he is quick and athletic so gotta think it’s a schematic thing. He’s playing with the Southland Sharks at the moment so take a look at him.
It’s funny because the Wellington Phoenix have been trying to integrate Australians into their team for ages and it hasn’t often worked, their best teams have included a strong kiwi core that they don’t quite have at the moment (depends how you categorise Andy Durante, to be fair). The Warriors are slaying it in the NRL at the moment (last week withstanding) with just a single Australian in their team. The Breakers have usually had a couple Aussies in there, certainly at their best they did, but they’ve also never not relied on some supreme Aotearoa talent.
That’s still there. Signing a couple Aussies and a Guam international won’t change the fact that Tom Abercrombie remains a Breaker. He’s soon to be the last of the golden era but is also doing his bit to usher in the next generation with Ili, Delany and a freshly re-signed Jordan Ngatai all ready to rock in bigger roles under Braswell. Ngatai in particular, the other two showed what they can do this past campaign and Ngatai, a quality shooter, is primed to do the same in 2018-19.
Meaning let’s not panic yet about the kiwis leaving, particularly before knowing who might be dropping in to replace them. The Webster Brothers are certain to be getting a few calls, although they’re both doing well enough over in Europe that there will be more lucrative offers out there for them. Maybe keep them hopes in check for now - Tai’s even hitting 41.7% from deep over in Germany… would imagine he gets a couple Summer League oppos if he wants them.
Two names to keep an eye out for instead: Tai Wynyard and Isaac Fotu. Both are reasonable possibilities. Both would be good fits. Both are New Zealanders. Again, just gotta wait and see what happens... best watch some NBL while you’re waiting.
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