AFC EAST

Buffalo Bills

Head Coach: Sean McDermott

2017 Record: An elusive playoff appearance after 18 years, earned through a 9-7 record

Main Man: It can only be the legend that is LeSean McCoy. The consensus before last season was that the Bills were tanking as they cut loose a bunch of skill players but nobody bothered to tell Shady McCoy, who in nine seasons in the league has never failed to pass 1000 yards rushing when he’s made at least 13 starts.

What To Watch For: Handy as it was to break the longest active playoff drought in the NFL, there were at least three teams in the NFC who were better value for a playoff spot than the Bills. Lucky buggers got to play in a division and conference where the Patriots swept everyone away. So check how well this lot are able to consolidate that relative success in 2018.

The Big Question: What’s Sean McDermott got against Tyrod Taylor? To be fair, all McD’s other moves have paid off so far but after unfairly benching him last season for Nathan Peterman, who promptly threw five picks, Taylor’s been traded away. Unless rookie Josh Allen is actually incredible, which the Bills certainly seem to think he is, then they’ve just gotten a whole lot worse. AJ McDermott’s their other QB. Sure, Taylor’s not the answer… but one more year to help Allen settle in wouldn’t have been a terrible idea.

Sneaky Pick: Somebody other than Kalvin Benjamin leads this team in receiving.

Miami Dolphins

Head Coach: Adam Gase

2017 Record: 6-10

Main Man: How about the entire offensive line because it was nothing but arse last season. Conservative playcalling avoided them getting sacked over and over but also meant that MIA quarterbacks were bottom five for QBR. Getting Ryan Tannehill back for the retired Jay Cutler will also help that, obviously.

What To Watch For: Ah, not really sure. They were forced to get rid of Ndamukong Suh for financial reasons and Jarvis Landry ain’t around anymore either. What they do have is consistency of vision from head coach Gase and it’s hoped that a few fewer party boys and a few more reliable battlers will turn things around.

The Big Question: Remember when that Dolphins O-Line coach was caught on video doing actual lines off the desk in his office? Cocaine is a horrible drug… just look at the Dolphins blocking last season.

Sneaky Pick: Robert Quinn is going to have an absolutely resurgent year in his new palm tree settings.

New England Patriots

Head Coach: Bill Belichick, same as it’s been since 2000 – the longest serving head coach in the league

2017 Record: 13-3 with an AFC Championship

Main Man: What Tom Brady did last season, throwing for 4577 yards with 32 TDs and only 8 INTs at age 40, earning him another MVP award, is basically unprecedented. Even in the Super Bowl defeat he still threw over 500 yards. Forget everything else, as long as Tom Brady’s playing then the Patriots are a championship contender.

What To Watch For: There’s been a bit of change here, and it’s not clear they’ve done enough to fix the holes they had on defence while also losing a few valuable offensive contributors (Danny Amendola and Brandin Cooks, most notably). These are the Pats though, so keep watch for whichever undrafted/underrated/undiscovered players they transform into schematic superstars.

The Big Question: Who can even compete with the Pats in this division? They’re not going to be as good as last year but they’re going to cruise into the playoffs as usual and that’s all they need for another run at another title.

Sneaky Pick: Rob Gronkowski gets married and settles down… haha, yeah right. Nah but he should be in line for some huge numbers given there could be a little more reliance on him this year. Gonna say 1200 yards and 14 TDs. All in on the Gronk Train.

New York Jets

Head Coach: Todd (Super) Bowles

2017 Record: 5-11

Main Man: With both Sam Darnold and Josh McCown around, they should at least avoid the cataclysmic lack of depth they’ve had at the QB position in recent times. But there are no real main men here. It’s a team of battlers trying to be better than the sum of their parts. Robby Anderson and Jermaine Kearse are an okay WR combo though.

What To Watch For: Sam Darnold’s turnover rates cost him a shot at getting drafted higher but that cleared the path for the Jets to trade up for him. Looks like he’ll go straight in there and even though they only won five games last year, they were 4-5 at one stage. Bowles got this lot scrapping above their weight class. There’s still zero pass rush here but there’s heaps of young talent and a few of them might make the leap forward. We’re early in the latest NYJ rebuild though, keep those expectations humble.

The Big Question: Doesn’t Todd Bowles look suspiciously like Bunny Colvin from The Wire?

Sneaky Pick: Nothing much happens all season so the New York press blow all the small things out of proportion but the Jets will beat the Patriots in a game. Just one. Big shock.

AFC NORTH

Baltimore Ravens

Head Coach: John Harbaugh

2017 Record: 9-7

Main Man: Don’t be alarmed when I say that it might be kicker Justin Tucker. This guy has a 95% success rate on kicks under 50 yards in his career and has never missed a point-after. He’s the best kicker in the game. Those points are so often the difference between a W and an L… especially when the Ravens have been struggling for offence the last few years.

What To Watch For: Rookie QB Lamar Jackson. First round QBs usually end up starting at some point in their rookie season and in Baltimore he’s surrounded by skills coaches who’ve worked with similar running threats like Colin Kaepernick and Mike Vick. Joe Flacco’s still the incumbent but it really feels like his days are numbered now.

The Big Question: Alex Collins burst onto the scene out of the blue to rush for 973 yards at 4.6 Y/A in 2017, giving the Ravens their best production from that position in ages. So… can he do it again?

Sneaky Pick: Terrell Suggs continues to defy the ageing process with another year of 10+ sacks, same as he’s done in five of his last six completed seasons. Hacksaw turns 36 in October but nobody would know.

Cincinnati Bengals

Head Coach: Marvin Lewis after all these years, despite reports he was going to leave this offseason

2017 Record: 7-9

Main Man: AJ Green is one of the elite tier wide receivers in this league. He’s coming off a sloppy year with a lot of targets gone astray but that was Andy Dalton’s fault and Andy Dalton was the crappy O-Line’s fault. Greenie’s one of the best in the business. Shout out to Geno Atkins too, easily the best player on this defensive unit.

What To Watch For: The Bengals are usually a lot better than they have been the last couple seasons. Teams with a consistent head coach and QB don’t tend to spend three straight seasons in the mud – not without somebody losing their job. There’s every chance that the Bengals are back in the playoffs in a few months but that’s where the problem begins – this franchise hasn’t won a playoff game since 1990. They’re 0-7 under Marvin Lewis.

The Big Question: Joe Mixon was abysmal last season but he’s clearly got way more ability than he showed with his 3/5 yards per carry. Young buck in for a resurgent second season then?

Sneaky Pick: Vontaze Burfict is suspended at some point during the season. Oh snap, he already is.

Cleveland Browns

Head Coach: Somehow it’s still Hue Jackson

2017 Record: Just a casual 0-16 is all

Main Man: Baker Mayfield is the man tasked with turning this franchise around but he probably won’t be the starter to begin with - what’s up Tyrod Taylor - so get a line on Myles Garrett. There’s no understating what that dude can do.

What To Watch For: Here’s the thing, the Browns defence – helmed by DC Gregg Williams – could actually be quite excellent in 2018. The offence, who even knows, but take Garrett and his fellow defensive end Emmanuel Ogbah, chuck in some Jabrill Peppers, a little Christian Kirksey… there’s a lot to like here.

The Big Question: The Browns are 2-41 since October 2015. How long until they sack the coach?

Sneaky Pick: This is one that I’ll instantly regret and you might not even see it repeated in the week one predictions but… Browns to beat the Steelers in their first game. And then level out to a five or six win team, probably.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Head Coach: Everyone’s buddy Mike Tomlin

2017 Record: 13-3 despite starting 3-2… but lost to Jacksonville in the divisional round

Main Man: Big Ben is one year older, Le’Veon Bell has already said that this’ll be his last year in Pittsburgh after contract talks stalled yet again. So the sturdiest member of the triumvirate (which has been the best in the NFL for a couple years) is Antonio Brown. Still doing incredible things having just turned 30.

What To Watch For: For one thing they seem to have a weakness when it comes to the Jacksonville Jaguars, which would make them the first team ever to suffer that. But the Steelers are close, they’re bloody close. The last three seasons they’ve had the potential to win it all but it hasn’t quite broken right. This might be their last chance, with the statuses of Roethlisberger and Bell and all that. Mike Tomlin’s under a bit of pressure too.

The Big Question: This is already an offence that pegged off over 6000 yards last season, with Ju-Ju Smith-Schuster a year older, Vance McDonald coming on strong down the stretch last time, the addition of James Washington in the draft and what was probably the best offensive line in the game in 2017… is this the year when they blow everyone away?

Sneaky Pick: Yes, it is the year they blow everyone away. The Steelers will score 500+ points.

AFC WEST

Denver Broncos

Head Coach: Vance Joseph

2017 Record: 5-11

Main Man: Quarterback struggles have hobbled the Broncs since Peyton Manning’s final year, despite the presence of John Elway in the GM’s seat (at least they didn’t fall for the Brock Osweiler thing). This year they made a commendable signing in Case Keenum… though even then you’ve gotta wonder if his breakout in Minnesota is replicable.

What To Watch For: Von Miller. Linebackers don’t come any better than this guy. The turnovers dropped in 2017 but the Broncos, despite a rubbish season, still were top five in yards allowed per play. Not quite where they were at when they won the Super Bowl but with guys like Chris Harris, Bradley Chubb and even without Aqib Talib they’re still going to bring the heat without the ball.

The Big Question: How funny is it that the Broncos have a tight end called Jake Butt? He’s a pretty decent player too, by the sounds of it. A very… firm… prospect…

Sneaky Pick: Another year outside the playoffs for Denver.

Kansas City Chiefs

Head Coach: Hey, hey, Andy Reid. He is the walrus.

2017 Record: 10-6 in the regular season, 0-1 in the playoffs. Same old.

Main Man: Kareem Hunt was brilliant as a rookie last season. 1782 yards from scrimmage with 11 total touchdowns. Of course there were some rookie blunders, he ran at 3.34 Y/A without a score for seven games in the middle of the season, but he came out the other end of that as the Chiefs won their last four games.

What To Watch For: Year after year of solid double-digit wins and early playoff exit meant Andy Reid’s had to play his cards. Alex Smith is gone and Patrick Mahomes is about to be unleashed upon the world. It’s not just pressure on Mahomes’ shoulders but it’s also a signal that the Chiefs are ready to take risks again. With Tyreek Hill and Kareem Hunt they’re already stacked for pace around their QB.

The Big Question: They still have Justin Houston, who is a stone cold axeman on the edge, but with Marcus Peters gone there are legit worries about the state of this once immense defence. Who’s going to step up?

Sneaky Pick: Mahomes throws 15 interceptions… but is otherwise pretty steady.

Los Angeles Chargers

Head Coach: Anthony Lynn

2017 Record: 9-7 and out of the playoffs

Main Man: Philip Rivers is great. Melvin Gordon is great. Keenan Allen, when fit, is even more than great. But you have to love the twin wrecking balls on defence that are Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram. The overwhelming pressure that those two will bring, coupled with what looks like a magnificent secondary, could be the difference for LAC.

What To Watch For: No team has been more notoriously self-obstructive than this one, just constantly left rueing wasted seasons after sloppy single-score defeats. Missed field goals, interceptions and fumbles, defensive errors… the whole lot. Thing is, underneath all that this is a squad that’s got it in them to beat any team in the league. They’re the ultimate surprise package.

The Big Question: Last time they began 0-4 with four pathetic Chargers defeats and the playoffs were gone from there… but they played really well for the final three-quarters of things. There’s every reason to think they’ll be super competitive this time. The problem is… will anyone in Los Angeles turn up to watch?

Sneaky Pick: The Chargers make the AFC Championship game.

Oakland Raiders

Head Coach: Some old fella called Jon Gruden

2017 Record: Rocking back to earth with a 6-10 season

Main Man: Khalil Mack is the real deal. 2016 NFL defensive player of the year and he’s averaged 12.2 sacks per season over the last three. He doesn’t have a whole lot of help on this defence but that’s never stopped him before.

What To Watch For: Jon Gruden’s gonna be fun, one way or another. How he’s able to relate to Derek Carr will have a lot to do with that. Carr was a breakout player in 2016 but was a bit crap in 2017, affected by a back injury and increased expectations. I’m still a big fan, but another QB Rating of 86.4 is not taking this team anywhere in a hurry. Also, the Raiders’ entire draft haul was basically all boom or bust candidates so that locker room might as well be a fireworks factory.

The Big Question: Gruden joked that he was trying to take the game “back to 1998” and then signed twenty free agents aged 28 or older. Do people honestly think he’s the answer? I realise that he’s been in the analyst booth but the game has changed immensely since he was last a head coach. Then to offer him a ten year contract!? I don’t get it. And I damn sure don’t trust it.

Sneaky Pick: But I do think that Gruden’s effect on Derek Carr will be a positive one. Completion rate of 66% with over 4000 yards is the prediction.

AFC SOUTH

Houston Texans

Head Coach: Still old mate Bill O’Brien

2017 Record: A very injury-affected 4-12

Main Man: The obvious one for every team is their quarterback and the Texans had a rookie QB last season whose instant emergence completely changed the focus of their franchise… but the Texans are lucky. They also have a certain JJ Watt on the comeback trail. Couple him with the incredible Jadeveon Clowney and that’s absolutely terrifying to face up against. Maximum pressure on both sides.

What To Watch For: A few doubts about their offensive line and their running game but Watson’s receiving corps have had some serious speed injected in alongside the always impressive DeAndre Hopkins, which could be electric. Plus, you know, what oughta be one of the league’s most frightening defences. If everyone stays healthy then this is your number one candidate for the biggest improvement in wins from last year to this.

The Big Question: How will Deshaun Watson handle the dual challenges of overcoming an ACL injury and sophomore syndrome all at once?

Sneaky Pick: Clowney has more sacks than Watt. Clowney has more sacks than anyone else in the NFL.

Indianapolis Colts

Head Coach: Frank Reich

2017 Record: 4-12

Main Man: It’s possible that there’s nobody more crucial to their team than Andrew Luck is to the Colts. Since his debut in 2012, Indy is 43-27 when he starts and 10-16 when he does not. The man has 17 game-winning drives in that time. Ridiculous ratios. Better hope that shoulder’s as good as they say it is.

What To Watch For: Indy got pissed all over by Pats assistant Josh McDaniels, who agreed to be their new head coach then backed out at the last minute. Nothing comes easy for them. There’s been so much roster turnover lately that Luck’s gonna feel like he’s returned to a different team. They’ll need a whole lot more on defence to make the playoffs, plus somebody other than TY Hilton is going to need to make those plays going back the other way.

The Big Question: Did you know that the Colts have a rookie head coach, rookie offensive coordinator, rookie defensive coordinator and rookie special teams coordinator? Because I only just found out and it shook me.

Sneaky Pick: Andrew Luck wins a very heated Comeback Player of the Year race.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Head Coach: Doug Marrone

2017 Record: 10-6 with two playoff wins

Main Man: The entire defence, of which ten of their eleven starters from 2017 are back for another swing – six of those ten were pro-bowlers last time. It’s been that suffocating defence which has turned things around in Jax. Jalen Ramsey, Calais Campbell, Malik Jackson, Myles Jack, AJ Bouye… don’t even worry about it.

What To Watch For: The number one team in the NFL for rush yards (they also comfortably rushed the most in total attempts). Leonard Fournette had a brilliant rookie season, though his 1040 yards often game in spurts – he averaged fewer than four yards per carry in all but three of his games, though he bagged 181 YDs with 2 TDs against the Steelers, which was amazing. An offensive line firing on all cylinders is a beautiful thing. Couple that with their defence and the Jaguars are even getting some Super Bowl nudges.

The Big Question: He’s a very big question and his name is Blake Bortles. He’s got a great arm but bugger all accuracy. There was a three game stretch against Indy, Seattle and Houston last year in which he threw at 71% for 903 yards, 7 TDs and no picks but then he threw five picks in his next two games. The glimpses are there but he’s far from reliable. How far can you honestly go with a quarterback that you have to shield from his natural instincts?

Sneaky Pick: The Jaguars trade for a quarterback at some stage in the season.

Tennessee Titans

Head Coach: G’day Mike Vrabel

2017 Record: 9-7 with a playoff win

Main Man: Weird that the Titans let Mike Mularkey go after their best season in ages, making the divisional round of the playoffs, but contract talks went south and here we are. Thing is, Mularkey did great things with strengthening the running game and the defensive fundamentals but he wasn’t doing it for QB Marcus Mariota. If Vrabel and his new OC Matt LaFleur can get Mariota on the upwards with his technical abilities then that opens this offence right up.

What To Watch For: No more DeMarco Murray, who’s retired, but Derrick Henry and Dion Lewis as the running back tandem are going to do some damage. You get two dudes like that, especially with Lewis able to split wide as a receiver if necessary, and you can run all day without tiring. They’re a little desperate that Corey Davis can emerge in his second year as a genuine WR threat because otherwise they’re a bit skint in that department but in Logan Ryan, Adoree Jackson and Malcolm Butler they’ve got a trio of corners as good as anyone in the NFL. Titans games will be won and lost on the ground, if you like that sort of thing.

The Big Question: Marcus Mariota is onto his third new offensive scheme in four years, are we sure that’s not to blame for his trajectory levelling out? Interesting to see if he’s encouraged to run more in LaFleur’s offence.

Sneaky Pick: The Titans will have the best rush defence in the NFL.

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