Football Ferns at the 2023 FIFA World Cup: Back Down To Earth vs Philippines
Well that clearly didn’t go to plan. After beating Norway in a thrilling, impassioned, amazing upset in the tournament opener the Football Ferns would have been all but on the brink of the World Cup knockouts if they’d repeated the dose against a lower-ranked Philippines team. Instead they got popped 1-0 as the Filipinas did to the Kiwis what the Kiwis had done to the Norwegians five nights earlier.
The Philippines orchestrated a brilliant performance which exposed the flaws in the New Zealand squad. They defended tight and defended deep in the knowledge that this NZ team struggles to break down teams from those positions. They scrapped hard in the midfield and their strikers put in a massive shift to cut off the passing lanes from the Aotearoa centre-backs which slowed their ball speed. Plus they scored from their only meaningful spell of attack. They were fantastic and they earned that first ever World Cup victory.
As a result the Football Ferns are left to figure out how they can wrangle a result against Switzerland in order to keep the knockout round qualification candle burning. Anything less than a draw and they’ll be eliminated... although if we haven’t learned not to get ahead of ourselves after Tuesday night then we’ve got issues. Also any team that undeniably deserves a place in the knockouts wouldn’t have lost to the Philippines so we can’t really complain. Just gotta resort to Underdog Mode against the Swiss in Dunedin and see what happens.
Luckily Underdog Mode suits the Ferns way more than playing as favourites. The past week has been stark evidence of that. Against Norway they were a well-oiled machine but Norway’s deficiencies played a big role in that. This was a very different task. After a game in which possession was shared evenly and the Ferns were able to control the midfield through their energy and physicality, they met a team that was happy to let them have most of the ball, taking away those transitional attacks which were their best moments against Norway, and matching them in all the hustle categories. Frankly, in the first half, they out-hustled the NZers on their own turf. Katie Bowen even used the word “bullied” in an interview with the telly folks.
Remember how the whole team seemed to understand the gameplan with so much clarity against Norway? That was how the Philippines played against New Zealand with their sturdy 5-3-2 formation. Two strikers to slow down the build-up progression. Wingbacks who could double with their inside defenders to guard against overlaps and through balls. Three central defenders to cover more of the pitch horizontally and limit those channels that Hannah Wilkinson targeted to well against Norway. Three in the midfield going toe to toe in the central areas. Not to mention a very good goalkeeper whose height helped lessen the threat of set pieces and open-play crosses.
FIFA’s graphics team guessed wrong here - it was a 4-3-3 with I.Riley on the wing and Steinmetz sitting deeper in a midfield trio with Hassett and Percival
Player for player there’s a lot more talent on the NZ team than the PHI team but then that was also true of the Norway game except in the other direction. Strategy matters too and Philippines coach Alen Stajcic drew up a stunner of a plan for his side. One which asked the Football Ferns to do the one thing that they absolutely struggle with above all else: create attacking moments against a set defensive structure.
Many teams have had difficulty doing that this World Cup. Even the very best teams are finding that the defensive shape of some of these minnow teams is a lot sturdier than it once was, making a mockery of the worries about this tournament expanding to 32 teams. England’s only goal against Haiti was a penalty. As was Australia’s against Ireland. Canada vs Nigeria and France vs Jamaica both ended in 0-0 draws. Even the USA had trouble finishing against Vietnam, only winning 3-0 – a long way from the 13-0 win they had over Thailand at the same stage four years ago. It’s been a genuine trend.
Now if those teams are having issues breaking down defences then what are the Football Ferns supposed to do? A team that has scored multiple goals in only four of their last 43 matches (and been kept scoreless in 24/43). This isn’t a new problem. It’s one that has existed for years and years across multiple coaches with a variety of attacking players being used.
Jitka Klimkova did have a plan. It was the same plan that she’d already forecasted against Vietnam, selecting the same starting eleven for the third game in a row but this time picking them in a 4-3-3 formation rather than the 4-4-2 we saw against Norway. Those two approaches reflect the differences in the games: one in which their shape out of possession was going to be more important and another in which what they did with the ball was the key.
Did the Football Ferns get complacent against the Philippines? Maybe just a tad, given how up for it the Philippines were. Not to mention the mass of emotions from the previous Thursday (would still rather have beaten Norway and lost to Philly than the other way around – nobody’s ever taking that incredible kiwi sporting evening from us as the Ferns opened the World Cup on home soil with a record crowd and a record win). But their struggles stemmed mostly from the style of game that was served up to them.
Even still, all would have been fine had they not made the fatal slip-up of conceding first. The Philippines had four shots all game. Only one of those was on target but it went into the net. It was during a small spell of attacking threat from the Filipinas which the Ferns simply had to knuckle down and survive yet they failed to do so. Betsy Hassett didn’t clear the ball at the first attempt which would have been okay had she then cleared it at the second however Sara Eggesvik fought through the challenge to earn the room to cross. That cross was lifted into an area with four players. Three were NZers. One was Sarina Bolden. It was Sarina Bolden who won the header. Thumping effort. Vic Esson got two big hands to the ball but it was practically from point-blank. Hard to judge a goalie on that... her juggling felt more like a valiant attempt than a mistake. However we know the quality of Vic Esson and on another day yeah she might well have saved it.
If the Ferns had scored first they genuinely could have gone on to win by two or three. It would have drawn the Philippines forward and left space for the kiwis to target. By instead conceding first they allowed the Philippines to sit even deeper and offer up absolutely nothing that wasn’t earned the hard way. Even at nil-all the Ferns felt like they were in control. One lapse changed the entire complex of the game and piled all sorts of pressure upon the shoulders of the home side – a team that knows full well that scoring goals ain’t easy for them.
Yet despite all that... the Football Ferns still did enough to win. We’re talking some very fine margins of bad luck that went against them. The Jacqui Hand shot off the inside of the post. The save from that Grace Jale side-footer near the end. And of course the disallowed goal where Hannah Wilkinson’s ear protruded into an offside position. Technically you can score a goal with your ear so there you go.
(The Ferns have had a lot of these marginal ones go against them in recent times. There were a couple specific ones in the last home series too. Thing is, when this happens and you get blanked the VAR margins linger very long in the memory. But when it happens to, say, Spain or Germany or Japan they simply score four more goals and all is forgotten).
There’s an alternate timeline in which all three of those chances go in and the Ferns win and we’re talking about how great their mentality was and what a great fight back they produced. Heck, there was literally a game against the same team about a year ago in which Sarina Bolden scored first but the Ferns rallied back to win thanks to goals from Meikayla Moore (a penalty) and Ali Riley within the last twenty mins. Two unlikely scorers. Sadly, this time they weren’t able to find a hero against a much stronger Philippines team (despite the best efforts of Jacqui Hand). Even though they went oh so close.
For real though, New Zealand had 68% of possession. 16 shots with 4 on target against 4 with 1 on target. We’re talking about winning 7 corners and conceding none. The cross count was 36 to 5. The Philippines only completed their passes at 47% so can’t moan about the defensive shift outside of that one lapse. Without going through all the record books, because that’d take ages, we can safely assume that the Footy Ferns have never been so far ahead in any of those categories in a World Cup game before.
But they lost. And, alas, that’s just where we’re at right now. Good enough to dictate things against a team like the Philippines but not necessarily good enough to take advantage.
This was a game that was crying out for Liv Chance’s incisive passing so no surprises she was subbed on at the break, alongside Annalie Longo for that extra attacking juice in the middle. The changes certainly helped with Chance in particular involved in several of the team’s better moments, although there is a fair case to argue that Chance could’ve instead played in midfield so as to keep the pace and width of Indi Riley on the wing. Riley hadn’t been as effective as the previous game but she does stretch the defensive live plus Chance in a more central role would have brought her long shot into the equation – always a useful option against the low block.
Hannah Wilkinson’s touch was heavy and she’s never been as precise with getting her head on crosses as you’d expect given her size – she won 5/14 aerial challenges. Things just weren’t clicking for Wilkie as they had in the Norway game. Didn’t help that the team’s crossing was pretty average too. First half they weren’t getting the ball into the box enough, second half they were but not accurately enough – granted that’s like threading a needle when the opposition’s got their penalty area stacked with defenders. When the real chances began to flow it was because they were finding ways to run in behind – via quicker passing and better movement off the ball - but it took too long to figure that out and when they did they ran out of luck.
Yes, the Philippines wasted a lot of time. Especially goalkeeper Olivia McDaniel. But, like, they were 1-0 up in a World Cup game so that’s exactly what they should be doing. Running the clock, slowing things down. The issue was that the referee never whipped a card out at any point which meant they could simply keep on doing it. Likewise to only get five minutes added on in a tournament of excessive stoppage time despite a lengthy VAR break felt rather harsh. But these wouldn’t have been problems if the scoreline had been reversed. You earn it, basically.
You know what though? With one win and one defeat we’re exactly where we thought we’d be after two games (and arguably with a better goal differential). A draw against Switzerland would put us through supposing that Norway don’t lose to the Philippines... Norway hasn’t scored a goal in two games so far but they do have a few of the 1v1 game-breakers that NZ lack so it’s hard to imagine the Philippines withstanding them whilst sitting deep as they did against the Ferns. Also Switzerland have much more in common with Norway than they do the Philippines. No doubt the Ferns would prefer another crack at the latter but at least they can be relatively confident about the game-plan knowing it worked last time (albeit against a more psychologically brittle team).
Bottom line is that the Football Ferns are entering their third group stage game with a shot at making the knockout rounds. That’s a rare and special opportunity. Maybe they’ll do it, maybe they won’t. If they do then they’ll face either Spain or Japan who have arguably been the two best teams through the early group stages. If they don’t then they’ll rue this Philippines defeat... but that’s World Cup football for ya. The Fernies didn’t suddenly become world beaters because of one victory against Norway. In fact it was the way they performed so unexpectedly well despite their natural flaws – part and parcel of being the third-least populated country at the World Cup – that made that win so remarkable. This follow-up was rough... but the journey isn’t over yet.
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