Taking Stock Of New Zealand's 2024 Test Cricket Transition & Future Forecast
The Blackcaps year of Test cricket has wrapped up and they finish 2024 with a 6-6 record, which holds steady at 7-7 in the World Test Championship where New Zealand is currently fourth. 'Transition' has been used a lot to describe the England Test team in recent weeks but Blackcaps have refreshed their Test squad throughout the year and while there are plenty of pesky wrinkles like losing four consecutive Tests in Aotearoa, there is a fabulous group of younger players building into Test careers.
2024 Results
vs South Africa: win by 281 runs
vs South Africa: win by 7 wickets
vs Australia: loss by 172 runs
vs Australia: 3 wickets
@ Sri Lanka: loss by 63 runs
@ Sri Lanka: loss by innings and 154 runs
@ India: win by 8 wickets
@ India: win by 113 runs
@ India: win by 25 runs
vs England: loss by 8 wickets
vs England: loss by 323 runs
vs England: win by 423 runs
2024 Test Stats
Batting
Kane Williamson: 1013 runs @ 59.5avg/54sr
Rachin Ravindra: 984 runs @ 42.7avg/60sr
Tom Latham: 633 runs @ 26.3avg/51sr
Daryl Mitchell: 607 runs @ 30.3avg/50sr
Glenn Phillips: 495 runs @ 29.1avg/73sr
Will Young: 481 runs @ 40avg/48sr
Tom Blundell: 466 runs @ 23.3avg/72sr
Devon Conway: 386 runs @ 21.4avg/55sr
Mitchell Santner: 264 runs @ 29.3avg/63sr
Matt Henry: 187 runs @ 12.4avg/87sr
Tim Southee: 186 runs @ 9.7avg/78sr
Nathan Smith: 80 runs @ 20avg/67sr
Ajaz Patel: 62 runs @ 7.7avg/35sr
Will O'Rourke: 18 runs @ 3avg/9sr
Bowling
Matt Henry: 48w @ 18.5avg/3.2rpo
Will O'Rourke: 36w @ 24.8avg/3.7rpo
Mitchell Santner: 27w @ 19.9avg/3rpo
Ajaz Patel: 23w @ 27.9avg/3.8rpo
Glenn Phillips: 23w @ 36avg/3.7rpo
Tim Southee: 17w @ 59avg/3.6rpo
Rachin Ravindra: 7w @ 36.8avg/3rpo
Nahtan Smith: 7w @ 48.4avg/5.9rpo
Kyle Jamieson: 6w @ 15.5avg/2.9rpo
Ben Sears: 5w @ 32avg/4.8rpo
Scott Kuggelein: 2w @ 66.5avg/4.1rpo
Neil Wagner: 2w @ 37avg/3rpo
Ish Sodhi: 1w @ 36avg/5.1rpo
Results and individual mahi weave together as a bunch of established Test players struggled this year...
Latham averaged below 30 this year for the first time in his Test career since debuting in 2014.
Conway's Test averaged has dropped every year, starting with 63avg in 2021 and falling to 21avg for 2024.
Mitchell averaged 25.5 in 2020 across two Tests and his 30.3avg this year is the lowest of his four years playing three or more Tests.
Blundell averaged 12 in 2021 across four Tests, which is a decent sample and worse than his 23.3avg this year. 2024 is Blundell's least productive of his four years playing at least five Tests.
Southee played 10+ Tests this year which is his first time since debuting in 2008, also averaging a career-high 59.1 this year. Southee's 17w is the lowest since his 11w @ 42.3avg in 2011.
Winning Tests will always be difficult when five 1st 11 lads are battling through some of their worst years in Test cricket. Blackcaps also had Wagner retire at the start of the year after averaging 30+ for two consecutive years (2022-23) and the only other time Wagner did that was his first two years of Test cricket.
Wagner retired and Jamieson played one Test. After three years of hitting at least five Tests, Jamieson played two Tests in 2023 and thankfully he rolled through a few overs for Cantebury A this week. Trent Boult has gone walkabouts, while three other members of a legendary Blackcaps bowling unit didn't play much or had their worst year of Test bowling.
Along with a batting unit that amplified the pressure on themselves with a lack of runs, this highlights the scope of the Blackcaps transition and refreshing overhaul. Aotearoa is the smallest Test playing nation (/team for West Indies) and yet we consistently produce elite young talent, which in 2024 helped the Blackcaps win Tests despite the performances/absences of established players.
Ravindra just turned 25-years-old and finished second for Blackcaps Test runs this year, joining Williamson as the only batters who passed 700 runs. Phillips is a bit older at 28-years-old and debuted in 2020, but he and Ravindra were only given steady 1st 11 roles a year ago. Ravindra is locked in as a top-order batter and Phillips's all-round ability is evident in his amazing fielding, as well as being fifth for Blackcaps runs and wickets this year.
Phillips scored 495 runs and took 23w. Six Blackcaps scored 400+ runs this year and five took 20+ wickets, but the joy of watching Phillips take spectacular catches or boosting to the boundary can't be measured.
O'Rourke is a 23-year-old kiwi seamer bowling 145km/h with movement into righties, variable seam nip and smashing gloves of every opponent he has bowled against in his debut year of Test cricket. O'Rourke has similar height as Jamieson and they share the natural angle into righties/away from lefties, but O'Rourke has more seam movement and bowls 10km/h faster.
Smith had a tough introduction to Test cricket against an aggressive England team, as did Sears who toiled away against Australia earlier this year. Like Ravindra, Phillips and O'Rourke, these two lads looked comfy in the Test arena and they can build towards regular 1st 11 opportunities.
Sears hasn't bowled yet this season and this points to Aotearoa's depth as Jamieson just returned to action, while lefty Ben Lister (25.7avg in FC) has also been out injured. Henry Shipley is almost as tall as Jamieson and O'Rourke, with similar movement into righties but he's been injured and hasn't bowled in yonks (is batting for Cantebrury A though).
The competitive wairua of Smith should see him settle in Test squads at least, ideally playing lots of 1st 11 cricket. Smith's fielding was a standout in his two Tests vs England and he is not quite as explosive as Phillips but Smith has top-notch cricketing athleticism. He also had two 20+ scores vs England with a knock of 42 showcasing his talent, let alone his bowling which has dominated Plunket Shield and County Championship in the last 12 moths.
Smith could hit 140km/h when the tides are in his favour, with traditional swing away from righties and the ball can go either way when Smith his the seam. The Blackcaps seam attack was led by Henry this year and had his best year of Test bowling, dipping below 30avg for four consecutive years, which looks best when he has O'Rourke and Smith fizzing alongside him.
There are two Canterbury youngsters in Mitch Hay and Rhys Mariu who could make their Test debuts over the next year and a bit. Hay (24yrs) has already played ODI/T20Is for Aotearoa and is the next wicket-keeper in line behind Blundell, averaging 48.4 in First-Class batting. Mariu (23yrs) is brewing as the next genuine Test opener with 71avg after 11 games of Plunket Shield and there could also be an opening for Zak Foulkes (22yrs) who has two 50+ scores in Plunket Shield while averaging 25.7 with the ball.
Aotearoa still needs reliable Test cricketers to win Tests and at least sustain their 6-6 record in 2024/7-7 in WTC baseline. Kiwi cricket fans should offer sacrifices at the shrine of Kane Williamson to keep him playing Test cricket, while Young joins Williamson and Ravindra as the only Blackcaps to average 40+ this year.
Young has 1st 11 talent and his ability to bat in any role with class should lead to consistent 1st 11 opportunities. Young may need to open the batting in the short-term which overlaps nicely with the development of Mariu and then Young should command selection in the middle order if others struggle for runs.
Three of the five bowlers who took 20+ wickets this year were spinners. Phillips and Santner have all-round ability, while Patel is a proven Test spinner who won't gain selection in Aotearoa ahead of the other two, but he should be in any Test squad to spin friendly conditions.
Aotearoa does not have a young spinner demanding selection, even if Adithya Ashok will add to his ODI/T20I games for Blackcaps this summer. New Zealand does have reliable, mature spinners in Santner and Patel though which should help Blackcaps stay competitive in any conditions.
19 different blokes played Test cricket for Aotearoa this year. Many of them struggled to offer their best mahi and an exciting core group excelled, including some of the best young talent that New Zealand has ever produced. Blackcaps had an impeccable high of sweeping India and some heavy lows including a 0-2 sweep in Sri Lanka, with four consecutive home losses either side of those away tours.
What kiwi cricket fans see throughout the rest of the summer will set up future Test squads. The best youngsters will be playing Super Smash where someone like Bevon Jacobs will command attention for Auckland but he has started his Plunket Shield career with 41avg/61sr and has Test talent. Lads like Jacobs, Ashok, Foulkes, Hay and Tim Robinson could be part of a fresh Blackcaps ODI/T20I squads as well, so now is the time to embrace the impressive development pipelines in Aotearoa.
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